Despite the Nigerian government securing loans totaling $3.334 billion (about N5.178 trillion) and attracting over $4.3 billion in investments to improve food production, the prices of basic food items have soared by nearly 61% since President Bola Tinubu took office. This alarming increase in food costs has left many Nigerians struggling to afford essential items, raising serious questions about the effectiveness of the government’s economic policies.
When President Tinubu began his term in May 2023, food inflation was at 24.82%. However, by November 2024, it had risen to around 40%. This information comes from the National Bureau of Statistics, which tracks economic trends in the country. The sharp rise in food prices has made it increasingly difficult for families to manage their budgets, as they find it harder to buy the food they need.
This situation is particularly concerning because it contrasts sharply with the government’s ambitious plans to improve food security and boost agricultural production. President Tinubu had promised to focus on making food more available and affordable, with a plan to cultivate around 500,000 hectares of farmland to grow staple crops like maize, rice, and wheat. In his New Year address, he acknowledged the challenges of rising living costs and high inflation and outlined his commitment to ensuring a steady food supply.
However, several factors have contributed to the skyrocketing food prices. The removal of fuel subsidies has led to increased transportation costs, while the naira’s significant devaluation and ongoing security issues have further exacerbated the problem. Over the past 19 months, the cost of food has risen steadily, with the Consumer Price Index report showing that for 14 consecutive months, Nigerians have been paying more each time they go shopping for food.
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For example, food inflation increased from 24.82% in May 2023 to 25.25% in June, and it continued to rise each month, reaching 40.87% in June 2024. Although there was a slight dip during the harvest season in July and August 2024, prices quickly climbed again in September and October, nearing 40% once more.
Despite these challenges, the government has secured significant loans from international organizations like the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB) to enhance agricultural production and food security. For instance, the World Bank approved a $500 million loan for a project aimed at improving livestock productivity and food security. Additionally, the AfDB has committed $2.2 billion for agricultural initiatives designed to create agro-industrial hubs that will boost productivity and job creation across several Nigerian states.
The government has also attracted a $134 million loan specifically for increasing seed and grain production. These financial commitments are intended to help farmers grow more food and improve the overall food supply in Nigeria.
However, experts are skeptical about whether these loans will effectively lower food prices. They point out that simply providing financial support does not guarantee results. For example, Associate Professor Unekwuojo Onuche of the University of Africa in Bayelsa suggests that increasing the supply of food is essential to stabilizing prices, but this process takes time. He warns that rising fuel prices can negate the benefits of increased food production, as higher transportation costs can lead to higher prices for consumers.
Another expert, Tobi Awolope, an agricultural economist at the University of Agriculture in Abeokuta, highlights additional challenges, such as the difficulty in reaching smallholder farmers with government support. She emphasizes the importance of transparency in selecting beneficiaries for agricultural programs and suggests that the government should reduce fuel prices to help lower transportation costs for food.
Both experts agree that without addressing the underlying structural issues in the agricultural sector, such as supply chain problems and the rising cost of fuel, the government’s efforts to stabilize food prices through loans and investments may not yield the desired results. They stress the need for a coordinated approach to tackle these complexities and ensure that support reaches the farmers who play a crucial role in the food system.
