A new political group is forming in Nigeria, mainly made up of northern members who feel ignored by the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). This group is expected to become the main opposition to President Bola Tinubu‘s government in the upcoming 2025 elections.
This information comes from a report by SBM Intelligence, which was released on December 20, 2024. The report suggests that the political scene in Nigeria is changing, with new alliances that could reshape how opposition parties operate.
Growing Discontent in Northern Nigeria
The report highlights that there is increasing dissatisfaction among people in northern Nigeria. Some influential leaders from this region have been speaking out more strongly against the current administration. The report states, “A new political group will emerge as the main opposition to the Tinubu Administration. It will be clustered around the northern elements that are out of favour in the APC.” This means that the new political group will likely focus on the concerns of those in the north who feel neglected by the ruling party.
Controversial Tax Reform Bill Sparks Debate
One major issue that has stirred up debate is President Tinubu’s proposed tax reform bill. Many notable northern leaders have opposed this bill, fearing it could worsen economic problems in their region. For instance, Borno State Governor Babagana Zulum and former Sokoto State Governor Aminu Tambuwal have expressed worries that the tax changes could place an unfair burden on northern states, which are already struggling with high poverty rates and security issues.
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Due to the strong pushback from northern governors and lawmakers, the House of Representatives has decided to pause discussions on the tax reform bill for now. The SBM Intelligence report indicates that despite this resistance, President Tinubu is likely to continue pushing for these reforms to be implemented in 2025. Critics believe that if the reforms go through, they could widen the economic gap between the wealthier southern states and the poorer northern states.
Tensions Within the APC
As President Tinubu faces challenges from northern politicians, tensions within the APC are becoming more visible. For example, Ali Ndume, a prominent northern politician, was recently removed from his position for allegedly making comments against the party. He has been replaced by Senator Tahir Monguno, indicating that the president’s allies are trying to strengthen their control within the party.
In August, the National Economic Council, led by Vice President Kashim Shettima, suggested that President Tinubu should withdraw the tax reform bills to allow for more discussion among stakeholders. Meanwhile, some of Tinubu’s strong supporters, like National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu and Minister of State for Defence Bello Matawalle, have been actively defending the president against criticism.
Ribadu’s Rising Influence
The report also suggests that Nuhu Ribadu’s role will become more significant in 2025, possibly overshadowing Vice President Shettima. Ribadu’s growing influence is expected to be crucial in shaping both the political and security landscape of Tinubu’s government moving forward.
Summary
In summary, a new political group from northern Nigeria is expected to challenge President Tinubu’s administration in 2025, fueled by dissatisfaction with the current government and the controversial tax reform bill. As tensions rise within the ruling APC and key figures like Nuhu Ribadu gain prominence, the political dynamics in Nigeria are likely to shift significantly in the coming year.
