In 2024, Nigeria’s earnings from crude oil reached an impressive N50.88 trillion, according to findings reported by DANDALI, a Nigerian news outlet. This figure was confirmed by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission, which is a government agency responsible for overseeing oil production in the country. They reported that Nigeria produced a total of approximately 408.68 million barrels of crude oil that year.
A report from Statista Research Department, a global statistics company, stated that the average price for crude oil in 2024 was $80.53 per barrel. When you multiply this average price by the total number of barrels produced in Nigeria, it results in an income of about $32.91 billion. If we convert this amount to Nigerian naira at an exchange rate of N1,546 to $1, it equals N50.88 trillion.
Additionally, when considering condensate (a type of light crude oil), Nigeria’s total oil production for 2024 was around 566.79 million barrels. Initially, Nigeria had aimed to produce 649.7 million barrels of oil, planning for an average daily output of 1.78 million barrels as outlined in its 2024 budget. They expected to generate about $50.68 billion, or N38.01 trillion, based on a crude oil price of $78 per barrel and an exchange rate of N750 to $1.
Even though Nigeria did not meet its production target of 1.78 million barrels per day (mbpd), the country still earned more than anticipated due to fluctuations in crude oil prices. Additionally, the depreciation of the naira against the dollar played a role in increasing the naira equivalent of the revenue from oil sales.
Read Also: FG Gets 255 Tractors For Food Production
The N50.88 trillion figure represents the total revenue generated from crude oil sales by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), international oil companies, and local oil producers. There are many factors that influence how this revenue is distributed among the three levels of government, the NNPCL, international oil companies, and local producers.
Throughout 2024, crude oil prices varied significantly. For example, in March, prices increased after attacks on Russian oil refineries, with Brent crude rising from $82.44 to $86.87 in just a few days. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude saw a rise from $78.13 to $81.77. However, by September, prices had dropped below $70 per barrel for the first time since December 2021, with Brent crude falling to $69.08 and WTI dropping to $65.71. By December 2024, the average price of Brent crude was reported at $74 per barrel.
Before the 2024 budget was finalized, the CEO of NNPC, Mele Kyari, expressed confidence that the projections for crude oil production and pricing were realistic. He noted that while prices might fluctuate, the average benchmark price set at $77.96 per barrel was achievable.
Regarding production figures, Kyari clarified that Nigeria’s total production includes both crude oil and condensate. The country was producing between 250,000 to 300,000 barrels of condensate daily, which, when combined with crude oil production, brought the total to approximately 1.78 mbpd. However, the average daily production of crude oil alone was reported at 1.484 million barrels in December 2024, which was below Nigeria’s OPEC quota of 1.5 mbpd.
Throughout 2024, Nigeria’s oil production fluctuated. It started at 1.42 mbpd in January but dropped to 1.23 mbpd in March. Production levels varied each month, with a notable increase towards the end of the year, reaching 1.48 mbpd in November and December. Despite the improvements, Nigeria did not meet its OPEC quota at any point during 2024.
The highest production figure reported for the year was 1.69 mbpd, which includes both crude oil and condensate. This figure contradicts claims made by the NNPC and the Ministry of Petroleum Resources that production reached 1.8 mbpd in November. Recently, the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Heineken Lokpobiri, claimed that production had increased from 1 mbpd to 1.8 mbpd, including condensates, but this statement does not align with the latest data from the regulatory commission.
