Tesla is set to reveal its long-awaited Robotaxi this Thursday, sparking curiosity about its design, commercialization plans, and what ambitious timelines Elon Musk might announce to boost Tesla’s stock.
The “We, Robot” event will be held at 7 p.m. PT at Warner Bros. Discovery’s studio in Burbank, California. You can tune in to watch the event, and we’ll be live-blogging our reactions throughout the reveal.
Musk originally planned to unveil the Robotaxi, also known as the Cybercab, on August 8. This came after a Reuters report claimed Tesla had shelved its lower-cost EV project to focus on the Robotaxi. Though Musk initially denied the report, Tesla soon laid off 10% of its workforce to shift gears toward autonomous technology, with Musk saying Tesla was going “balls to the wall for autonomy.”
As usual, Tesla didn’t meet Musk’s original timeline, and the event was delayed to October following a last-minute design change to the front of the vehicle. Investors, who have long supported Tesla’s autonomy vision, are eager to see the Robotaxi finally unveiled.
However, the timing might be less than ideal. Tesla’s margins have shrunk due to increased production costs for the Cybertruck and disappointing third-quarter deliveries. The company has also issued five Cybertruck recalls in less than a year. Launching a new vehicle could mean further investment in production lines and potential factory downtime—issues that tend to unsettle investors.
Whether the Robotaxi reveal lives up to the hype or not, we’ll soon find out. Here’s what we’re expecting to see.
A Cybercab prototype
The biggest reveal we’re expecting is a prototype of Tesla’s newest vehicle concept—the first since the Cybertruck was announced in November 2019.
Elon Musk has called the Robotaxi the “Cybercab,” suggesting it will resemble the design shown in Walter Isaacson’s recent biography of Musk. This concept is described as a two-door, two-seater, compact vehicle with sharp, angular lines and a stainless steel finish, similar to the Cybertruck’s rugged design.
The Cybercab will likely be built without a steering wheel or pedals, a controversial choice that Tesla engineers reportedly opposed at launch. However, Musk remains committed to introducing a fully autonomous, purpose-built vehicle to the market, as detailed in Isaacson’s book.
Read Also: Tesla unveils 20 Cybercabs at the We, Robot event, announces a starting price under $30,000.
This design may pose regulatory challenges, as it doesn’t align with current federal motor safety standards. We expect Musk to cite these hurdles as reasons why getting the Cybercab to market will be a complex process.
Tesla’s lead designer, Franz Von Holzhausen, told TechCrunch that the company’s existing vehicle lineup has been a stepping stone toward the autonomous future envisioned with the Robotaxi. “In a strange sort of way, we’ve been working our way — in a very public way — to what an autonomous future will look like,” he explained. “You see the big interface, how it’s configurable, upgradable, and packed with entertainment features and some humor. And I think that will continue to evolve.”
Smoke and mirrors
Tesla typically hosts its big reveal events at its own facilities, but choosing a Hollywood studio for the Robotaxi launch signals a shift, highlighting Musk’s flair for showmanship.
The studio, open to the public for tours, will give attendees—mostly Tesla shareholders and superfans—the chance to explore famous sets like Batman, Friends, Gilmore Girls, The Big Bang Theory, and Harry Potter. It also provides Tesla with large sound stages and sets, some resembling suburban streets or small downtown areas, ideal for demonstrating the Cybercab’s autonomous driving capabilities. In this controlled environment, free from other traffic, the Cybercab could drive itself at low speeds, offering an impressive, risk-free demo.
We also expect the demo to showcase Tesla’s ride-hailing app, which was hinted at during the company’s first-quarter earnings call in April.
Other vehicle and product announcements
The event’s title, “We, Robot,” is a clear nod to Isaac Asimov’s I, Robot series, which delves into the relationship between humans and robots. This reference has fueled speculation that the event will include updates on Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus. Asimov’s stories focus on three key laws of robotics that prioritize human safety: 1) Robots must not harm humans or allow harm through inaction, 2) Robots must obey human orders unless those orders conflict with the first law, and 3) Robots must protect themselves as long as it doesn’t conflict with the first two laws. These principles resonate with Tesla’s autonomous driving goals, where safety is paramount.
Deepwater Asset Management predicts that, alongside the Cybercab prototype, Tesla might tease the much-anticipated $25,000 EV, often dubbed the Model 2 by fans. Analysts Gene Munster and Brian Baker suggest the Model 2 could resemble the Cybercab, based on previous hints from Tesla that both vehicles would share a platform.
Additionally, the firm expects Tesla to provide more information on a potential “Cybervan”—a fully autonomous passenger van that could enhance future public transportation. This prediction is rooted in Tesla’s broader autonomous ambitions, as hinted during their March 2023 investor presentation.
Some potential wildcards
Building a robotaxi is one thing; commercializing it is quite another. While Tesla may leverage the uniqueness of its vehicles and the strong loyalty of its fanbase to attract customers for a ride-hailing service, many potential users may hesitate to switch to a service that is likely to be less reliable initially.
One intriguing possibility is that Tesla could announce a partnership with Uber, which has successfully attracted autonomous vehicle companies to its global ride-hailing platform. In recent weeks, Uber has rapidly onboarded AV companies like Waymo, Cruise, Wayve, and others. Although Musk seems inclined to pursue an independent path, a partnership might be the most effective strategy for successfully commercializing these vehicles.
Another potential surprise could involve McDonald’s, following a recent post from the fast-food giant that teased, “chat’s about to pop off 10.10.” Musk responded with a laugh-crying emoji, suggesting we might see an announcement or demo involving autonomous food delivery in collaboration with McDonald’s on Thursday.
What we don’t expect to see
There will undoubtedly be considerable hype surrounding Musk’s vision for an autonomous future, during which he is expected to echo arguments previously made by Uber about the potential for shared rides. The premise is that hailing an autonomous vehicle (AV) will be so easy and inexpensive that car ownership will become unnecessary.
While this optimistic vision is compelling, we do not anticipate that Musk will outline a clear path to commercialization during Thursday’s event.
In the past, Musk has claimed that Tesla vehicles currently on the road could achieve autonomy with just a software update, allowing owners to add their cars to Tesla’s ride-sharing app and rent them out for extra income. Tesla has indicated it would take a 25% to 30% cut of the revenue generated from these rides, while also providing a dedicated fleet of robotaxis in areas with insufficient car-sharing options.
Despite Musk’s long-standing promises of a fully autonomous Tesla, the company has yet to deliver one. Although Tesla has made strides with its advanced driver assistance system, known as Full Self-Driving (FSD), the technology is still not fully autonomous and requires a human driver to remain attentive and ready to take control if necessary.
This may explain why Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley, a well-known Tesla bull, expects Tesla to adopt a “dual” approach to autonomous ridesharing. According to him, there will be a “supervised” FSD rideshare service alongside a fully autonomous, app-based Cybercab, with initial commercial launches anticipated for late 2025 or 2026.
Regarding the production timeline for the Cybercabs, analysts at Deepwater have highlighted the lag between Tesla’s product unveilings and actual production ramp-up. For instance, the Model Y had a minimum gap of 10 months, while the Cybertruck has seen a 48-month delay, and the Semi is at 79 months and still counting. Although Tesla delivered a handful of Semis in December 2022, it has not yet reached volume production.
“This suggests that production for any vehicles announced in August would not begin before June 2025 at the earliest,” Deepwater stated.
Furthermore, since the robotaxi event was delayed for “important changes,” it indicates that the product is still likely far from being ready for production.
